Panel 1: Supply Chain & Economic Security Panel

Key take-aways (updated with panelists’ names)

Protectionism is rising worldwide, threatening the rules-based trade system and forcing carriers, ports, and shippers to rethink network design and cost structures. — Jeremy Greenwood, World Shipping Council
Industry needs a single, durable U.S. maritime and trade strategy; today’s piecemeal tariffs, Section 301 ship fees, tonnage taxes, and Ships Act proposals send mixed signals and deter long-term investment. — Jeremy Greenwood
C-suite engagement is improving, but siloed KPIs across finance, sourcing, customs, and logistics still fragment decision-making; integrated metrics are essential for resilience. — Tyler Bemis, Port of Virginia
Uncertainties around “Chinese-owned,” “Chinese-built,” and nautical-mile thresholds will reshape service patterns: Annex 1 likely concentrates Tier-1 calls, Annex 2 may open opportunities for Tier-2/3 ports, while Annex 3 could consolidate ro-ro gateways. — Jeremy Greenwood & Tyler Bemis
Technology interoperability—shared data standards that let every system “talk”—is the top short-term priority; richer real-time communication and AI-driven insights will follow. — Tom Gould, Gaia Dynamics
Mentorship of younger professionals is a strategic imperative: blending veterans’ regulatory know-how with digital-native skills will power the next supply-chain era. — Tom Gould
July 9 is a pivot point: expect 10 % baseline tariffs, selective quota re-introductions, tougher origin tracing, and heavier documentation burdens, but also some negotiated flexibilities. — Maria Luisa Boyce, UPS (former CBP)
Stakeholders must maintain a unified voice with policymakers, map end-to-end pain points, and prepare implementation blueprints—because complexity and compliance costs are set to rise.

A shifting macro backdrop (Jeremy Greenwood)

Jeremy Greenwood opened by celebrating the “resurgence of American maritime dominance” yet warning that a “stew” of global protectionism is thickening. In Washington, disparate initiatives—USTR’s Section 301 vessel fees, the proposed Ships Act tonnage taxes, and other congressional bills—layer unpredictably on top of ordinary tariff policy. Industry, he argued, craves one coherent national plan that survives election cycles; without it, capital remains on the sidelines and carriers hesitate to commit vessel capacity or new strings.

Mirroring Washington, capitals abroad are drafting “copy-cat” rules: Bangladesh, for instance, is discussing a requirement that 15 % of its textile exports sail on Bangladeshi-flagged ships. If every country follows suit, vessel choice shrinks, freight prices climb, and the multilateral trading order frays. Greenwood urged vigilance and outreach so policymakers grasp the downstream impact on U.S. farmers, exporters, and consumers.

The operator’s lens: growth amid uncertainty (Tyler Bemis)

Tyler Bemis, speaking for the fast-expanding Port of Virginia, emphasized the practical need for volumes to justify the port’s billion-dollar terminal expansion program. He applauded the growing interest of corporate C-suites in supply-chain strategy but lamented that KPI structures remain balkanized. Finance, customs, sourcing, and logistics still optimize for different targets; logistics often discovers too late that a “low-duty” sourcing decision is impossible to move competitively.

Bemis flagged two looming questions:

Chinese-made vessel clauses. Many liners have already started redeploying Chinese-built ships away from U.S. rotations to dodge fees, but knock-on effects for network design, port calls, and inland infrastructure remain opaque.
Gigantism. As ship sizes grow, will carriers dump cargo in just one or two U.S. gateways? If so, inland bottlenecks could paralyze retailers and factories nationwide.

His prescription: more collaboration, scenario planning, and a mindset of “options, options, options.”

Technology first, communication second, mentorship always (Tom Gould)

Tom Gould, Gaia Dynamics’ customs-tech authority, ranked technology interoperability as the industry’s most urgent short-term priority. Using a health-care analogy—where an e-prescription instantly reaches the pharmacy and billing systems—he contrasted maritime’s patchwork of proprietary data formats. A shared language would let every actor know “what’s in the box,” automate compliance checks, and surface exceptions before cargo arrives.

His medium-term focus is structured communication: conferences, working groups, and unified digital channels where ports, carriers, forwarders, and importers exchange demand forecasts and regulatory intel in near real time. His long-term passion is mentorship. Veterans must transfer regulatory expertise while younger entrants contribute digital fluency, ensuring future supply chains are both compliant and data-driven.

Policy mechanics: Annexes, tiers, and nautical-mile riddles

(Greenwood & Bemis with Boyce moderating)

In the Q&A, Jeremy Greenwood walked the audience through the draft Section 301 fee structure:

Annex 1 (Chinese-owned/operated vessels). High escalating fees (with five-call caps) incentivize liners to consolidate service at mega-ports, potentially starving Tier-2 gateways.
Annex 2 (Chinese-built, sub-55 k DWT/ <4 k TEU ships, plus a 2 000-nautical-mile “short-haul” carve-out). Carriers may resize or reposition fleets to exploit these thresholds, which could benefit smaller Gulf and South-Atlantic ports.
Annex 3 (ro-ro/vehicle carriers). No caps or exceptions exist, so consolidation of car-carrier ports seems likely—creating clear winners and losers.

Bemis pressed for clarity: Where do nautical-mile counts start? If 2 000 nm begins at the U.S. customs territory (≈24 nm offshore), does a Panama Canal transit reset the clock? Maria Luisa Boyce noted CBP guidance is still in draft, urging industry to provide concrete scenarios during the comment window.

Evidence, valuation, and derivative tariffs (Tom Gould)

Turning to steel-derivative Section 232 tariffs, Gould illustrated with an umbrella. Importers must segregate the value of the steel skeleton and screw from the textile canopy and plastic handle, pay a 50 % duty on the steel alone, and document costs with supplier invoices. Complexity explodes when:

The importer is related to its steel supplier, invoking computed-value rules.
The product is complex (e.g., an automobile).
Traceability is demanded for UFLPA, carbon-border, or forced-labor regimes.

Hence, July 9’s announcements will likely re-introduce quota-like mechanisms for tariff rates under 10 %, alongside expansive tracing mandates. Companies will need forensic bills-of-material, costed at component level, to avoid paying duty on entire finished goods.

July 9 and after (Maria Luisa Boyce)

Maria Luisa Boyce, drawing on her CBP tenure, stressed the split between policy language and operational reality. She predicted:

Moderation: The final package “will not be as bad as feared,” blending fresh bilateral deals with phased provisions.
Flexibility: USTR has leaned on technical advisory committees, hinting at carve-outs and transition arrangements.
Implementation gaps: CBP will need months—and industry input—to translate legal text into codes, enforcement posture, and trade-portal updates.

Boyce underscored that tariffs near 10 % will become the new floor, quotas will resurface, and detailed supply-chain tracing will be the norm. Companies must elevate trade compliance to the C-suite.

Strategic imperatives

Across all interventions, three imperatives emerged:

Shape policy. Trade stakeholders must present a unified, technically grounded front to Congress and agencies, articulating real-world pain points—port rotation impacts, quota headaches, origin-tracing feasibility.
Invest in data & interoperability. Build or demand platforms that standardize manifests, purchase orders, compliance flags, and KPI dashboards. Interoperability is the bridge between regulatory complexity and day-to-day execution.
Cultivate talent pipelines. Pair seasoned compliance specialists with digital natives through structured mentorship, ensuring domain knowledge is retained while AI, analytics, and API integrations flourish.

Mood check: guarded optimism

Despite policy turbulence, the panelists struck an upbeat note. Capital projects are advancing, cargo keeps moving, and July 9 could even unlock clarity that unleashes pent-up investment. Yet uncertainty will persist: elections loom, global protectionism is contagious, and technology adoption is uneven. Only firms that integrate policy foresight, interoperable systems, and empowered talent will convert volatility into competitive advantage.